Archive for the 'Mobile' Category

Mary Meeker: Not So Meek

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on November 9, 2006
in Mobile and Venture Capital
. 0 Comments

Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley presented some great data today at the Web 2.0 Summit today. Last year, her talk was the highlight of the conference, and this year’s presentation does not disappoint. Take a look!

The slides: The State of the Internet, Part 3

Comments:

  • It looks like the hard work that went into the Internet Bubble is finally starting to pay off. At least, for a few of the best companies, as it should be.
  • In public markets, about 2% of technology companies have created about 100% of net wealth. This is not Pareto’s 80/20 principle. Expect the love to be shared more over the next few years.
  • About 60% of Internet traffic may be P2P file sharing of unmonetized video. No surprise here. Videos are huge, easy to rip, and easy to distribute. Don’t expect this to change.
  • Mobile data services revenue ~$20B — comparable to online ad revenue. Supports what I was saying in my article on Version.
  • Mobile: 2.5G and 3G Subscribers projected to be close to 2B in 2009. Big market? Um, yeah.
  • LOTS of room for Internet Ad Revenue opportunities. I would expect a big drop in Direct Telephone with a movement to Internet / Online in next 3 years.
  • It’s no surprise that Microsoft has moved to selling their own audio hardware with the Zune. Apple showed them that the big money is made on the hardware devices ($14B in CQ3:06) and not in the sale/distribution of audio/video through iTunes ($1.8B in CQ3:06).

Richard MacManus does a nice summary with additional points.

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Verizon: Can You Stream My Data Now?

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on October 30, 2006
in Mobile, Technology and Venture Capital
. 1 Comment

Verizon announced their Q3 2006 Earnings today and there are a number of things I wanted to comment on. You can find their slide pack here. Additionally, Ars Technica covers it here and Om Malik covers it here.

  1. Earnings of $1.9 billion (66¢ per share) on revenues of $23.3 billion, an increase of 25.8 percent from Q3 2005. Nothing wrong with generating nearly $2B of cash in a quarter. Hurt me with that problem.
  2. Wireless becomes the largest US Wireless company, based on revenues. Verizon is also the largest Wireless Data provider based on data revenue. Perhaps that is in part because…
  3. Wireless Data revenues nearly doubled year-over-year. Now, Wireless Data revenues are only $1.2B (14.1%) of the $9.9B total Wireless revenue bucket, but at those kinds of growth rates, and I think it will get even stronger in the next 12 months, Wireless Data services will get serious notice by the Verizon execs.
  4. Wireline Data revenues of $4.1B, up 89.3% over Q3 2005. Now we’re talking. That’s a significant increase in data services. American homes are hungry for it. Give it to them.
  5. Wireline Data revenue is now 32% of Wireline total revenue. And, not surprisingly, "Revenue mix continues to shift to data". That may be because…
  6. Wireline Data services (FiOS) are becoming increasingly available for sale in 16 states, as Verizon’s FTTP (fiber to the premises) network passed a total of 5.3 million premises. That’s not many homes, to be sure. Verizon needs to accellerate the pace of this program.
  7. Penetration of FiOS Internet service now stands at 14%. So, if Verizon can get FiOS service to 100M households, and increase their penetration to 25%, they will have 25M subscribers to their data services. But, equally important, is their TV service…
  8. Penetration of FiOS TV service now stands at 10%. TV and Internet service is getting confusing for the folks like Verizon. Still, if they can increase FiOS availability, they will be able to deliver Video service either as data or a something resembling "cable". They don’t need to figure out the answer — the market will decide for them (but they will need to do both). Of course, Verizon will have Phone as well on top of this network (whatever "phone" means in a few years).

Verizon gets it. It’s not about the Benjamins. It’s all about the data. Deliver data faster and more reliably to the millions of handsets and homes, and you own a significant asset for the future.

Verizon has made a strong push to own the data path. On the wireless side, they are making ground with their EV-DO and Revision A EV-DO support. Still can’t compete with Europe and Asia, but it is about the best that’s out there now. On the wireline side, the FiOS Fiber Optic network they are installing will be the launch pad for what Americans will do on the Internet (inflection point: year 2010). By owning the data path, Verizon will be positioned to offer key Internet services that Comcast should have been able to do long ago. Missed opportunities.

And, the best part is, Verizon appears to be able to build out the FiOS network while still making a profit. To me, this tells me that they are not being aggressive enough with the FiOS build out. If they put an extra $2B in their pockets this quarter, they should be investing that in the FiOS network first, and the Wireless Data networks second. We’ll see if they can continue to execute. Verizon should be sprinting to get the FiOS network build out done as fast as possible, especially since they are still generating cash.

Personally, I’m not a fan of Verizon Wireless — too many bad past experiences. It is not likely that they will get me back as a customer.

However, I will definitely switch to Verizon FiOS services when/if they ever get to the San Francisco Bay Area.

And, if they offer a compelling enough package of FiOS and Wireless Data… well, they may win me back after all. Customer re-acquisition by kicking butt on the raw delivery of data.

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Nokia E61 Firmware Upgrade Released: Blech

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on September 20, 2006
in Gadgets and Mobile
. 6 Comments

New firmware has been released for my Nokia E61 smartphone. Symbian Freak has a good list of what’s new and changed. And, the best part is that you can upgrade the firmware yourself using their PC Suite and your USB cable. Great instructions located at the E-Series Blog.

My upgrade went smooth. Unfortunately, you have to find a Windows PC in order to do the upgrade. Once that hurdle was complete, I found the upgrade process to be excellent. I backed up my Phone memory to my SD card before the upgrade and restored after the upgrade. You will get most things back, but many applications will still need to be reinstalled.

Unfortunately, the upgrade was not completely satisfying:

  • I still have problems with IMAP email from Dreamhost. When I contacted Dreamhost about the issue, they said that IMAP IDLE works great to Dreamhost from their Treo, so it must be my device. Is anyone else having problems getting push email onto their Nokia E61 from Dreamhost?
  • I have 1828 Contacts on my phone. It now takes 30 seconds to open up a contact to find out their phone number or address. This is really unacceptable.
  • Unfortunately, I now have to press the Blue button to get numbers in applications. While this does make sense at some level, it means that I can’t do single-handed number entry into applications. This used to work great for the Web Browser and Google Maps for Mobile. Now, the usability is very poor. Who wants to use two hands just to access the Web Browser shortcuts? Any way to lock the number pad on a per-application basis?

Note that if you use iSync with Mac OS X and follow my backup/restore instructions above, iSync will attempt to re-sync all of your Contacts and Calendar entries again. This didn’t cause any serious problems, but you may be presented with conflicts to resolve.

So, it’s a mixed blessing.

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4G vs WiMAX, Round 1

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on August 31, 2006
in Mobile, Technology and Venture Capital
. 0 Comments

I’ve said it before. In the end, 4G will win over WiMAX. Now, that doesn’t mean that WiMAX won’t be able to find applications for which the technology is particularly well suited. It just means that in the global mobile marketplace, WiMAX will not be a replacement for the cellular infrastructure that will eventually lead to 4G deployments.

The Register just released an article on a demonstration done by Samsung in, presumably, Korea. They showed 4G data zipping along at 1Gb/sec, or 100Mb/sec. My (wired) Comcast High-Speed Internet gets 4Mb/sec. I.e., the demonstration was way zippier than anything we can anticipate on the near-term horizon for the US market. And, completely unwired.

Now, Sprint and Nextel have signed up to deploy WiMAX ASAP in the US. All good news. So, while WiMAX may win briefly in the US, I doubt that it will win globally. And, in the end, at those speeds, WiMAX will not be able to survive in the US either. The race is on.

Gentlemen, start your engines!

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Mobile Media Revenue Projections: 2006-2011

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on August 29, 2006
in Mobile and Venture Capital
. 1 Comment

Found in the current (August 28, 2006) edition of Red Herring magazine. Courtesy of Juniper Research.

Mobile Media Revenues (Billions), projected

Market 2006 2011
Streamed Mobile TV $0.6 $2.7
Broadcast Mobile TV $0.1 $1.8
Ring Tones $4.2 $2.4
Ringback Tones $1.0 $7.2
Full Track Downloads $0.2 $11.7
Streamed Music $0.4 $4.2

So, it looks like Ring Tones + Ringback Tones continue to grow in size (from $5.2B to $9.6B), with the market shifting heavily from Ring Tones to Ringback Tones. Amazing. I can’t wait to hear all the exciting ringback tones I will get to listen to in the future.

Also, Full Track Downloads come on with a vengeance moving from a weak $0.2B to an incredibly strong $11.7B. I have a hard time seeing that happen.

Interestingly, while the other numbers look inflated, the Mobile TV projections for 2011 actually look small to me. There is decent growth projected in those markets, to be sure. But, I think that in 2011, people will spend more money on viewing mobile video content than they will on downloading full music tracks. But, hey. That’s just me. I could be wrong.

Bottom line: Juniper shows these markets, in aggregate growing from $6.5B in 2006 to a whopping $30B in 2011. Yow. Place your bets.

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Nokia E61 Screenshot & Golfing?

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on August 4, 2006
in Gadgets, Golfing, Mobile and Software
. 0 Comments

Found on my favorite blog about the Nokia E61, E-Series, is a pointer to a free program to capture screenshots of the smartphone to a file. Get the program here. Note that for the Nokia E61, the default key combination to take a snapshot is <Shift><OK>, which is really <Shift><Click> (with the “mouse”).

Unfortunately for you, the reader, this means that you will have to put up with the silly screenshots from my device, like this one:

That’s a shot of the free Golf Pro 2 application supplied from the Nokia web site. Enjoy!

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Caltrain WiFi Access

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on August 3, 2006
in Mobile, Motorcycle and Technology
. 2 Comments

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. San Jose, to be exact. Much of my business takes place in Palo Alto/Menlo Park, and San Francisco. So, I get around.

I hate commuter traffic. My time is valuable and the attention required to navigate safely in heavy bumper-to-bumper, stop-and-go traffic is not conducive to thinking clearly and advancing my business or the business of my clients. Life in the Bay Area somewhat forces you to become a savvy commuter.

There are many techniques I employ to keep myself out of traffic:

  • Telecommuting (working from home over broadband) when possible
  • Car-pooling with Amy when I go to Menlo Park (where she works)
  • Setting up meetings that allow me to avoid rush-hour travel
  • Riding my motorcycle gives me access to the HOV lane and lane-splitting, and often eases any parking-related hassles
  • Riding Caltrain when I go to Palo Alto or San Francisco
  • I’ll likely get a Prius with the HOV-lane access sticker someday (or maybe the Tesla Roadster)…

More and more of my business is taking me to San Francisco. Both startups and new Venture Capital funds are finding their headquarters up there. Caltrain offers a fantastic Baby Bullet train that gets you from San Jose to San Francisco in under an hour. And, it’s a great ride - very relaxing. I get a ton of work done on the train. This quiet-time allows me to prepare for the day in the morning and wind-up the day in the evening. I even have some of my most productive meetings with people while riding on the train (I love having a captive audience).

The Mercury News covered the Caltrain announcement that they have successfully demonstrated WiFi connectivity on Caltrain between Millbrae and Palo Alto. WiFi (802.11) antennas are used on the train cars which gateway to a set of WiMax (presumably 802.16) towers placed strategically along the route. I’m personally not a big believer in WiMax for the masses (3G/4G networks will be "good enough" with tons of existing infrastructure already in place), but this is a great application for it. Caltrain believes it will take one more year to fully deploy the system and have it cover the entire route from San Jose to San Francisco.

I fully support and encourage high-speed Internet access on commuter trains! There was no mention of cost of the service, but it’s pretty easy to build a business model that returns the $1M it might take to build out the service (selling per-day access or monthly access, say). Of course, I hope they decide to make it a free offering.

ABC7 News Video coverage here.

Other wireless train trials here.

For me, I get my Mobile Internet access through my Cingular service via my Nokia E61 smartphone. A bit slow today, but more than enough bandwidth for activities I need while riding the train. And, it works right now.

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Nokia E61 Smartphone

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on August 1, 2006
in Gadgets, Mac OS X, Mobile and Venture Capital
. 5 Comments

This morning, I’ve got some business on Sand Hill Road. 3000 Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, to be exact. Entrepreneurs know this address well, as there is a large clump of VC’s in the circle here, spread among four buildings, and it’s pretty hard to miss this cluster when doing your VC roadshow.

I’m having breakfast at the Sundeck Restaurant (smack dab in the center of the circle) and the place certainly is a magnet for the VC power breakfast. Today I recognize a GP from Mohr Davidow Ventures, but this blog is no place for name-dropping. MDV (who funded 2 of my startups) is actually on the opposite side of Sand Hill Road, but the eats at the Sundeck are pretty good, and the view/vibe is nice. The tables are covered in brown paper, and ample pencils are supplied at the table, alongside the salt and pepper, for back-of-the-envelope calculations and impromptu architecture diagrams. Certainly appropriate for the environment.

However, my trusty Apple Powerbook laptop fails to find a wireless Internet signal. That is not appropriate for the environment. I thought this place, of all the places in the world, would certainly have a strong WiFi signal for the VC elite to enjoy while chowing down and passing WiFi-enabled geek devices around the table. Enter my new phone, the Nokia E61, to the rescue.

I replaced my old Motorola V551 mobile phone (antenna sucked) with this new Nokia E61 smartphone earlier this summer. Bought an Unlocked one on eBay for $388. The phone is really built for Europe (with 3G WCDMA frequencies that match Europe - why can’t we all just get along?), but it supports Cingular’s EDGE service - good enough for my needs. It connects to any WiFi (802.11b/g) WLAN as well, and can even switch between WiFi and Cingular’s EDGE network automatically (though it is a bit buggy).

Today, the phone allows me to connect to the Internet from my Powerbook, wirelessly through Bluetooth to the phone, which forwards my packets through the Cingular EDGE network automatically. How did we ever survive without all this technology? :-) Somewhat pokey, but it gets the job done nicely in a pinch, and costs no money with my Unlimited data package from Cingular.

What I like about it:

  • Based on Symbian OS 9.1 S60 3rd Edition (now that’s a mouthful). It’s a real and decent operating system that can multitask real applications. This version has had a number of security enhancements which, unfortunately, broke compatibility with many of the existing Symbian applications. This will be fixed over time, as developers retool for this new version. Be patient.
  • The quality of voice calls is excellent (as you would expect from Nokia) and the antenna/reception is much better than my old phone.
  • Speakerphone works great and I’ve never had anyone complain about the quality heard on their end.
  • Connectivity to many standards, including GSM, IR, USB, Bluetooth, EDGE, EGPRS, GPRS, 802.11, WCDMA, UMTS, Mini-SD, and a partridge in a pear tree.
  • Google Maps for Mobile is awesome on the device.
  • Runs Java J2ME applications great.
  • Has a nice QWERTY keyboard.
  • Includes goodies like support for Blackberry Connect and Microsoft ActiveSync, but I haven’t tried those.
  • The built-in Web Browser is pretty darn good, rendering most every web site I visit correctly. Main complaint is that it doesn’t remember what I have typed into web forms.
  • Synchronizes with the Mac Powerbook perfectly using iSync (after I tweaked a config file on the Mac). Handles Calendar, Tasks, and Address Book.
  • Good expandability through the Mini-SD card allowed me to use a 2GB card to hold lots of MP3 music (which can easily be used for ringtones), documents, and photos.
  • Color screen is bright and perfectly acceptable.
  • Includes basic support for reading AND editing Microsoft Office applications, like Word, PowerPoint, and Excel. They work OK, but you really wouldn’t want to use them unless you really HAD to use them.
  • Adobe Acrobat has a native reader for PDF documents as well. Works great, but I’ve had it barf on large PDF files, so there is some more work to do here.

What I don’t like about it:

  • Using Dreamhost to hold my IMAP email Inbox causes the device’s email application to not get new mail automatically and hang occasionally. Don’t know if this is Dreamhost’s fault or Nokia’s fault.
  • I have 1,800 contacts in my Address Book and sync them all to the phone. As such, the Contacts application takes a long time to bring up an entry. OK. It’s really only about six seconds, but it feels like an eternity when you’re looking for an important number while someone waits on the phone…
  • When receiving calls, the caller-id is sometimes matched to a phone number in my Contacts with the name nicely displayed on the screen, and other times it is not and all I get is the number. It’s very annoying to not know who is calling.
  • Call times are not displayed anywhere while I am on a call. Nor can I find call times listed in their Log application for calls dialed or calls received. I must be missing something, as this is a pretty basic mobile phone feature…
  • Battery life is really good - until you start using WiFi. Keep your charger handy if you intend to use your 802.11 connection frequently.
  • Fonts for the phone numbers in the Contacts application are way too small for my feeble, old eyes. You’ve got the screen space - make the numbers bigger, or the font selectable.
  • It would be nice if the synchronization process could sync my Mac Address Book Groups with the Nokia E61 Contacts Groups.
  • Also, synchronizing All-day Calendar entries look like All-day busy meetings that last from 12:00am-11:59pm on the phone. Not really the same thing.
  • Finally, it doesn’t sync Notes through iSync.

I really like the phone and have been pleased with most aspects of it. Check out the most excellent blog on the Nokia E-Series devices. I just learned about Calcium - A Better Calculator for the Nokia E61 there (thank goodness - the built in one sucks) and this Automatic Key Lock Application.

Cingular will be releasing the Nokia E62 version shortly, which has no WiFi/WLAN or support for European 3G/WCDMA, but does officially support their network.

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Google Maps for Mobile now has Live Traffic!!! Yow.

Published
by
Brian Berliner
on July 25, 2006
in Gadgets, Mobile and Technology
. 1 Comment

Pinch me. Am I awake or just dreaming? Google Maps for mobile just released a new version that includes Live Traffic. Living in the Bay Area just got a lot less painful. This is almost a poor man’s version of Garmin’s excellent line of FM-based and XM-based GPS devices.

Other sites that covered the story:

I recently purchased a brand new (and unlocked) Nokia E61 smartphone. I really like it and will post much more about it soon. In searching around for killer applications for it, I stumbled upon Google Maps for mobile. Even though the Google Maps for mobile download claims that it might not work on the phone, don’t believe it. It works like a champ. I absolutely love this application.

What I like about it:

  • Brings high quality maps & directions to your smartphone
  • Excellent user interface
  • Does maps, directions, finds businesses
  • Extremely fast downloads of map information
  • Now overlays traffic as well
  • I love this application

What I don’t like about it:

Sorry to be so over-enthusiastic about this, but the folks over at Google really did a nice job with this application and they deserve the praise.

PS: Please do not use this while you drive. Get your directions, check the traffic, then modify your route. Do not mess with this while trying to watch the road. Buy a Garmin product for your car instead.

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